Volume 9, Issue 2 (7-2015)
payavard 2015, 9(2): 131-146 |
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Basakha M, Yavari K, Sadeghi H, Naseri A. Population Aging And Iran's Non-Oil Economic Growth. payavard 2015; 9 (2) :131-146
URL: http://payavard.tums.ac.ir/article-1-5689-en.html
URL: http://payavard.tums.ac.ir/article-1-5689-en.html
1- Assistant Professor, Social Welfare Management Department, School of Education Sciences and Social Welfare, University of Social Welfare and Rehabilitaion Sciences, Tehran, Iran
2- Associate Professor, Economic Department, School of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran ,Kyavari@modares.ac.ir
3- Assistant Professor, Economic Department, School of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2- Associate Professor, Economic Department, School of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran ,
3- Assistant Professor, Economic Department, School of Management and Economics, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract: (14696 Views)
Background and Aim: The recently emerged symptoms of population aging
have raised serious concerns in some developed countries. A recent report by the
United Nations (UN) indicates that aging is more rapidly growing and is even more
serious in developing countries than it is in certain other countries. Therefore, this
study is aimed to determine the impression of aging on non-oil economic growth.
Materials and Methods: A simple economic growth model was built which
would take demographic variables into account. Then, using the country's data for
the years 1967-2011, the researchers tried to estimate autoregressive distributed
lags (ADL). The short- and long-term models, and error correction model were
estimated using Microfit 4.0 software.
Results: The findings show that physical capital, human capital and trade
openness have a significant positive effect on per capita income, both in the long
and in the short run. Similarly, the regression analysis indicates that “Ageing
Index” may have a significant effect on economic growth in Iran’s non-oil sector.
Conclusion: Due to the young makeup of Iran's population, the signs of aging
economy have not raised sensitiveness but predictions indicate that the aging
process in Iran will be intensified in the coming decades and its negative effects
will emerge in near future. Therefore, due to the long-term effects of aging on
economic growth, working structure and retiredness reform policies, it is vital to
stabilize population growth at an optimal rate, and more importantly, pay attention
to capital storage.
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